Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 35.256099 39.832967 45.224442 52.172003 61.089565 72.461876 88.630990
2025-04-27 29.073461 34.687181 41.983802 52.605134 68.570204 93.585956 141.220793
2025-05-04 25.247543 31.298499 39.749160 53.296270 76.694142 121.921898 247.613324
2025-05-11 22.467863 28.634891 37.720726 53.443904 84.082947 157.235201 499.621180
2025-05-18 20.191378 26.237966 35.494079 52.459780 88.919531 194.968433 1261.244800
2025-05-25 18.650879 24.665175 34.201947 52.671640 96.556861 258.078344 26268.145171
2025-06-01 17.306162 23.194477 32.789058 52.207994 102.479819 336.988587 NaN
2025-06-08 16.144942 21.866909 31.394869 51.388788 107.143962 438.843474 NaN
2025-06-15 15.181244 20.750378 30.202042 50.691120 111.988040 592.652429 NaN
2025-06-22 14.394048 19.843301 29.259221 50.321808 117.993014 870.682314 NaN
2025-06-29 13.586443 18.831518 27.999039 48.928188 119.496039 1176.888886 NaN
2025-07-06 13.363895 18.780944 28.533374 52.034305 142.861680 6482.910213 NaN
2025-07-13 12.758422 18.032093 27.643653 51.345008 148.844832 125730.636371 NaN
2025-07-20 12.316183 17.535301 27.200751 51.775375 162.088986 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 11.935187 17.117266 26.869111 52.452456 178.779319 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 11.543755 16.652208 26.389696 52.598075 193.207224 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 11.100487 16.065475 25.598902 51.640330 198.549343 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 10.780172 15.682963 25.206644 51.847095 215.408500 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 10.437812 15.239765 24.643449 51.395568 226.372450 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 10.097011 14.781426 24.010089 50.597379 233.272532 NaN NaN
2025-09-07 9.787935 14.366764 23.441337 49.917407 241.380605 NaN NaN
2025-09-14 9.520315 14.016517 22.989049 49.557396 254.038917 NaN NaN
2025-09-21 9.206792 13.566279 22.282574 48.198426 251.241925 NaN NaN